Thursday 25 July 2013

Middle East is known as the birth place of all the religions; Christianity, Judaism and Islam. Besides the religious divide, region has been engulfed with so many political, sectarian and defense issues. These issues include the overall democratization process of Middle East, Syrian uprising, Palestine-Israel conflict. More recently Middle East has become the focal point of world politics for another major issue that is the Iran nuclear controversy. Tehran’s nuclear program got started in 1950’s with the support of USA. With the emergence of state of Israel, USA shifted its policies towards Israel and USA was the first country who recognized Israel as an independent Jewish state.  Israel and USA are opposing Iran’s nuclear program because Israel feels threatened from Iran. Once Iran got nuclear, Israel’s regional dominance will no more exist. USA opposes Iran’s nuclear program to safeguard its economic interests in the region. Since then USA supports Israel’s existence
in the region and also help it in the field of defense. Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, regional actors and many western countries are showing much concern. If Iran develops its nuclear weapon then there would be certain implications for the region. Iran seeks to develop its own nuclear weapon to fulfill its two major objectives; first, global dominance that can lead to its regional dominance by overseeing the world’s busiest oil supply route through the strait of Hormuz, secondly, to safeguard the interest of Shiite community in the region. The Iranian ability to oversee the oil supply route and the pursuance of its nuclear weapon would definitely be in Iran’s favor. Secondly, the nuclear Iran would give it a hedge to confront the Sunni countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar; this would lead to Shiite-Sunni rift and increase in sectarianism in the region thus destabilizing the region. Thirdly, a nuclear Iran would give a serious blow to nuclear
non-proliferation regime. Regional states like Saudi Arabia, Turkey which is party to NPT would definitely resume their nuclear program. States in other region like South Korea would also o for developing nuclear weapons, thus destabilizing the region, failure of NPT and global arms race. Fourthly, Tehran’s nuclear program will strengthen the non-state actors prevailing in the region like Hamas and Hezbollah that would lead to terrorism and a regional war in Middle East while confronting Israel. Fifthly, Iran is having bitter relations with USA and Israel. Nuclear Iran would escalate the conflict between Iran and Israel. Israel is threatened by Iran due to its small size and lack of strategic depth, thus leaving the option of pre-emptive strike for Israel. Last but not the least, if Iran’s nuclear controversy cannot be resolved through diplomacy and table talks then, it would lead to a serious nuclear conflict between Iran and Israel or USA, because USA has failed to put
sanctions on Iran due to international pressure. Last option USA left with is the military strike on Iranian’s nuclear facilities and in return to this Iran, while retaliating, would attack the nuclear facilities of Israel thus having destructive and catastrophic consequences for the region.
It is difficult to predict the consequences of nuclear armed Iran but it is predicted that nuclear Iran would definitely increase its influence in the region; also it would trigger a nuclear war between USA, Israel and Iran.

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